The Ghanaian economy is poised to surpass all of its 2025 macroeconomic targets, according to a new analysis by IC Research, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year.
Key indicators such as inflation, exchange rate stability, interest rates, real GDP growth, and gross international reserves all posted impressive results in H1 2025. The research firm says these outcomes reflect tighter spending controls, improved tax compliance, and a renewed government commitment to fiscal discipline.
Reviewing the 2025 Mid-Year Budget, IC Research noted that the government delivered a “sizable fiscal adjustment” that outperformed both its own targets and market expectations, despite ongoing weaknesses in non-tax revenue collection. All year-end macro-fiscal targets have been retained, signaling strong confidence in meeting — and potentially exceeding — projections.
While total revenue and grants reached GH¢99.3 billion, missing the official half-year target by 3.2%, collections still beat IC Research’s forecast by 8.3%. Gains came largely from stronger tax receipts, although non-tax revenue underperformed by 19.1% due to lower collections from state agencies. Customs duties also fell short by 12.7%, with officials citing revenue leakages at ports, notably Tema, and smuggling across borders.
The Energy Sector Levy Act is expected to bolster revenue in the second half of 2025, and the Finance Ministry has outlined targeted measures to address identified fiscal risks. IC Research says these mitigation steps, if effectively implemented, should keep the government’s fiscal trajectory intact for the remainder of the year.
